Arsenal must be perfect to win the title – they dare not slip up against Aston Villa

Saturday’s Premier League trip to Villa Park is a huge early psychological test after the pain of what happened last season

Mikel Arteta will have spent the summer asking himself what more can be done to beat Manchester City to the Premier League title.
After a thorough investigation of the performance of his goalkeeper, defence, midfield and attack, he could be forgiven for reaching a simple conclusion as to how to finish top of the table.
Beat Aston Villa.
Reduced to the simplest terms, had Arsenal beaten Villa once in the Premier League last season they would be champions. Their bid effectively ended when they were defeated 2-0 by Unai Emery’s side on April 14, having lost to their ex-manager the previous December.
Arsenal’s result that day was so damaging because it ensured they would not be able to reach a tally of 90 points, which is now the minimum target for every title challenger going into the new campaign.
In six of the last eight seasons, the champions surpassed that mark. For perspective, only six Premier League winners in the previous 24 years reached the 90-points threshold. That’s how much Pep Guardiola has raised the bar.
In most years, a team winning 16 of their final 18 games as Arsenal did would be hailed as one of the most consistent and mentally tough of all time, churning out victories amid the pressure of a title race.
In head-to-heads with their challengers, Arsenal emerged on top, taking four points off City and Liverpool. Arteta would happily take that again as it was another signal of how much his players have matured.
By every league measurement bar the one that is most remembered, this Arsenal side would stand alongside some of the very best. Sadly for them, we are not in normal times because of City’s relentless consistency. Unless he wins the Premier League, Arteta is in danger of overseeing a great Arsenal team in the wrong era, their excellence being undermined by the idea they must improve even more so they can make the next step. It’s a big ask demanding a club win more than 89 points as Arsenal did a year ago.
Arsenal have taken giant strides forward under Arteta but unfortunately for them they are not chasing a stationary target, as City push themselves even further. Where Arsenal really fall short over the last couple of years is in their trophy haul. While it is understandable they have not beaten City to the title, they should have gone further in the cup competitions. It is not acceptable for the current group of Arsenal players to go trophyless for much longer.
My prediction that Arsenal will miss out on the title again in 2025 is no criticism of Arteta and his players. It is a recognition that it will be a surprise if City do not win at least 90 points once more, and it is going to be tough for Arsenal or anyone else to do likewise. 
The status quo will only change when Guardiola leaves, or if the Premier League commission inflicts a heavy punishment in the event of City being found guilty of the charges against them. Either way, for Arsenal to become champions they either need City to drop off or to enter uncharted territory for Arteta’s side by breaking the 90-point barrier.
To achieve that, the title “run-in” effectively started on the opening weekend because any points carelessly dropped before Christmas have the potential to haunt a side in May.
That makes Saturday’s trip to Aston Villa a huge psychological test early on. It sounds ridiculous to suggest Arsenal cannot afford to lose at Villa Park as they did last season – a match they deserved to get at least a draw from. It would be daft to lose confidence because of an early setback, if it happened. 
The problem is not so much the repercussions if they drop points at one of the toughest venues, but the weight of history when trying to keep pace with City. The champions make it seem like every dropped point is crucial, which means the rest feel under unbearable pressure from the outset.
Comparisons are often made between Arteta’s Arsenal and Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool, and how after going toe-to-toe with City my former club was finally able to edge clear in 2020. It is worth emphasising what was required to make it happen. Liverpool won 28 of their first 29 Premier League games to finish on 99 points – the second-biggest points tally in history.
That’s the level needed to knock Guardiola’s City out of their stride. But for Klopp, Guardiola would be going for eight titles in a row.
On the flipside, a win at Villa Park would be a statement of Arsenal’s fresh intent, demonstrating their capacity to sprint out of the blocks.
Because of Emery, Villa have become a notable scalp. The Spaniard’s unhappy spell at Arsenal should be a distant memory. Fortunately for Villa, it would appear it isn’t for rival Premier League and European clubs.
One of the surprises of the summer is how few of the elite teams seeking a new coach made a pitch for Emery. He would have been capable of taking over at Liverpool, Barcelona, Bayern Munich or Chelsea, while Manchester United must have considered his qualities during that period when they were contemplating whether to keep faith with Erik ten Hag.
Based on his experience and CV, Emery is second only to Guardiola as the most accomplished and successful coach currently working in the Premier League.
Last season, I upset some Villa fans by suggesting Emery’s impressive work would guarantee he would be back in the Champions League sooner rather than later. I was half right, given he has managed to achieve that with Villa rather than leaving for another club.
By signing a new contract, he sent a message that he is working in an environment where he and sporting director Monchi believe they can build a side to match their vision. But it still surprised me that there was not a stronger push for his services from those head-hunting because it will be hard for Villa to replicate what they did last year given the extra demands of Champions League football. Their squad does not have the necessary depth.
It will get more difficult for Villa as the season progresses, the jump in level and intensity when balancing the Champions League matches with Premier League weekends vastly different to that of the Europa Conference League.
Arsenal might consider themselves unlucky to be heading to Villa so soon, when Emery’s side is still fresh and full of ambition to reproduce last season’s form.
Because of Emery, Arsenal versus Villa feels like a heavyweight Premier League battle where Arteta’s side dare not slip-up if they are to prove they can take the fight to City again.
Arsenal’s performances over the past 12 months have been good enough to make them champions. Now it is all about eradicating unnecessary mistakes, even against accomplished opposition such as this weekend’s.
No team in Premier League history has improved their points tally five years in a row. Arsenal have done it for the last four years. They must go where no other side has to win the title.